Thursday, September 22, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

Hope

It's human nature to be optimistic. It's human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what's the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.

Ironically, it doesn't work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrance, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock that you bought is a real value, and you bought it right -- you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.

So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side -- and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn't play any part in this process. You don't need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.

Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path -- or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.

unfortunately hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counter-intuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and instead, allowing that small loss to develop into a large loss.

In the stock market hope get in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is "Don't take the big loss." In order to do that, you've got to be willing to take a small loss.

If the stock market turns bearish, and you're staying put with your whole position. and you're HOPING that what you see is not really happening. And then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn't going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hoping is the devil that bids you to sit -- while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.

In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope -- instead embrace cold, clear reality. RR

Friday, September 16, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

Certitude

The greatest threat to civility—and ultimately to civilization—is an excess of certitude. The world is much menaced just now by people who think that the world and their duties in it are clear and simple. They are certain that they know what – who - created the universe and what this creator wants them to do to make our little speck in the Universe perfect, even if extreme measures – even violence -- are required.

America is currently awash in an unpleasant surplus of clanging, clashing of certitudes. That is why there is a rhetorical bitterness absurdly disproportionate to our real differences. It has been well said that the spirit of liberty is the spirit of not being too sure that you are right. One way to immunize ourselves against misplaced certitude is to contemplate -- even to savor – the unfathomable strangeness of everything, including ourselves.

George F. Will (2005)

From the frontispiece of Catherine Crier’s book, “Contempt – How the Right is Wronging American Justice."
BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

Certitude

One of the most constant characteristics of beliefs is their intolerance. The stronger the belief, the greater its intolerance. Men dominated by a certitude cannot tolerate those who do not accept it.

Gustave Le Bon

Monday, September 12, 2005


Michael 2005 - Getting Ready Posted by Picasa
BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

Howard G.


This is what his March 2005 diagnosis was: glioblastoma (GBM IV), the deadliest form of brain cancer. So, from March until yesterday, he saw no one except his wife and one visit each from his children and his sister. He knew that he wasn't himself and believed that if people saw him in his condition they would remember him as sick rather than the "real" Howard.

He knew that he had outbursts of temper. At other times he would say inappropriate things. He couldn't keep track of the conversation.

His wife followed his total reclusion directive and stayed with him every moment. No one was to see him in his condition. Even Maria and Leah, her only Florida friends, were asked to meet her in the lobby of her apartment house where they would have tea and cookies -- and then only if Howard was sleeping. Sometimes they would come and Carole wouldn't come down. Carole stopped all activities. She wouldn't even go to support groups because they would take her from Howard's side. He made her promise never to leave him with anyone else until he died. She promised.

Howard had been an executive of Lillian Vernon, and Fingerhut, and of Bloomingdales. He was President and CEO of Orbachs. He started out as a trainee at A&S after college. He went to Bronx High School of Science. He was very sharp and self-confident. He knew how to take charge.

After his retirement he and Carole traveled from May until September, and he "managed? (owned?") a Fantasy Football Team. He attended conventions where the players were drafted for his teams. During the course of his illness I sent him an article from the Financial Times about Fantasy Football. His wife told me he couldn't follow it.

He liked good wine and spent too much money on it. He smoked very big cigars. He generously shared both, He and Carole liked to gamble in Las Vegas. He shared his money with Las Vegas. He laughed a lot.

He was a volunteer tutor for the Broward School system and spoke with enthusiasm about his joy at his student's progress.

He was easy to be with.

mek

Friday, September 09, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

On the Other Hand

Dear Friend X,

You have asked about the correct split between stocks and bonds for people in the late sixties.

I have never had bonds except after I sold my house when I owned some muni's for about a year. As usual I did the wrong thing by selling them instead of continuing to take the 4.5 or 5% nontaxable payment that came through the munifund I was invested in. I sold out of fear of higher interest rates depressing the price of fund. The operators of the fund were much smarter than me and kept it short and as far as I can tell have maintained the price of the fund.

A broker with whom I speak on the beach says at our age 25% bonds 75% stocks --

But I am uncomfortable with that many bonds --

except: Having bonds when stocks fall and bonds rise (assuming that the laws of conventional market theory continue to prevail) gives you access to cash with which to purchase the now lower priced stocks. (by selling the now higher priced bonds).

You buy Indexes because your assumption is that the market will rise in the long run. The exception I noted above makes the same assumption, as stocks are purchased at prices that someone determines to be temporarily low prices in the expectation that in the long run their prices will rise.

But you are not engaged in timing the market (smart boy!) and so this strategy does not apply to you.

I think that the standard for our age used to be 40% bonds, but that was the standard when people lived for a shorter time.

It is probably time to sell gold as I have started to purchase it again. You know that I sold it just before its recent rise. As long as I have played with gold I have never made significant money.

Wouldn't it be great if I had only one hand?

mek
BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

As we grow up, we learn that even the one person that wasn't supposed to ever let you down probably will.

You will have your heart broken probably more than once and it's harder every time. You'll break hearts too, so remember how it felt when yours was broken.

You'll fight with your best friend.

You'll blame a new love for things an old one did.

You'll cry because time is passing too fast, and you'll eventually lose someone you love. So take too many pictures, laugh too much, and love like you've never been hurt because every sixty seconds that you spend upset is a minute of happiness you'll never get back.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

It's never as good as it is -- it's never as bad as it seems.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

A liberal is a man too broadminded to take his own part in a quarrel.

Robert Frost.

I would have agreed in full with Frost twenty years ago; but during the last ten years I have found liberals (like the members of the Horowitz forum) to be as bound to their own opinions as conservatives. I had thought of "liberal" as meaning open minded, willing to see the other side; but nowadays there are only two sides and usually the sides are determined not by the facts but by political party.

Although I make no case for the delayed reaction to Katrina on the part of the Bush administration, I note that local officials seemed to have escaped the attention and opprobrium of most liberals. I think that when the after action report is written we will find that various interfaces between the Feds and state and local government didn't work or didn't exist. That may be the real friction point.

FEMA has never had a good reputation, it seems that it is always slow to get off the ground--perhaps because it is a part time organization; having to suddenly mass thousands of employees at different emergency locations when ever an incident occurs.

I also note that Haley Barbour, Republican governor of Mississippi, had few complaints about the Federal response after hearing a local Louisiana official break down into tears on Meet the Press. A very composed, should I say "cold" Barbour saw the the Katrina response through the eyes of a man who believes in the Republican dictum "the less government the better." He explained (bragged?) that his local officials were right on the job. This is a case of a carpenter who believes that a nail is the solution to every problem. Government should be local. Most likely Barbour thought that he was proving that his local governments actually handled the Katrina successfully; while in contrast, the Democrats across the state line failed miserably.





On 9/5/05, Joel Horowitz <jhorowitz@knology.net> wrote:
Could this be a partial explanation for why liberal Democrats have had a difficult time winning elections? Joel

Monday, September 05, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

A liberal is a man too broadminded to take his own part in a quarrel.

Robert Frost.

Friday, September 02, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

The average car is driven 15,000 miles per year.

If you are lucky enough, or smart enough to have purchased a Prius your annual cost of gasoline at $2.79 per gallon will be $951.00 in the next 12 months --assuming an average cost of $2.79 and 44 miles per gallon.

Of course, I was neither smart enough nor lucky enough to have purchased a Prius. I am driving an Avalon. My Avalon gets about 25 miles per gallon. My annual cost will be $1395.00.

Now, my plumber drives a Ford Expedition and his wife drives a Hummer. Each car gets 10 miles per gallon. Their gasoline (premium at $3.09) expense is going to exceed $4635.00 each. A total of $9,270.00!
BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

Death of old age is a rare, singular, and extraordinary death, and hence less natural than the others; it is the last and ultimate sort of death; the farther it is from us, the less it is to be hoped for.Michel de Montaigne --Of Age

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

What is the standard brewing temperature for tea?

Answer

For a flavorful cup of tea, ideal brewing temperatures are:Green Teas: 180 degrees Semi-Fermented teas: 195 degrees (just off boil) Black Teas: 212 degrees (just off boil)[source http://www.oldcitycoffee.com/shop/coffeeinfo.html#teabrew]Use cooler, barely steaming water (160°F to 180°F) for white, green, and oolong teas (boiling water makes these teas bitter). The steeping time can range from 30 seconds to 3 minutes; some recommend more time for oolong.For black tea, the water should come just to a boil. Steep the tea for 3 to 6 minutes, choosing a longer time if you're going to add milk.[source http://www.epicurious.com/drinking/nonalcoholic/tea]

Sunday, August 21, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

The Old Poodle A wealthy old lady decides to go on a photo safari in Africa, taking her faithful aged poodle named Cuddles, along for the company. One day the poodle starts chasing butterflies and before long, Cuddles discovers that she's lost.

Wandering about, she notices a leopard heading rapidly in her direction with the intention of having lunch. The old poodle thinks, "Oh, oh! I'm in deep shit now!" Noticing some bones on the ground close by, she immediately settles down to chew on the bones with her back to the approaching cat. Just as the leopard is about to leap, the old poodle exclaims loudly, "Boy, that was one delicious leopard! I wonder if there are any more around here?"

Hearing this, the young leopard halts his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror comes over him and he slinks away into the trees. "Whew!", says the leopard, "That was close! That old poodle nearly had me!"

Meanwhile, a monkey who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the leopard. So off he goes, but the old poodle sees him heading after the leopard with great speed, and figures that somthing must be up. The monkey soon catches up with the leopard, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the leopard.

The young leopard is furious at being made a fool of and says, "Here, monkey, hop on my back and see what's going to happen to that conniving canine!" Now, the old poodle sees the leopard coming with the monkey on his back and thinks, "What am I going to do now?", but instead of running, the dog sits down with her back to her attackers, pretending she hasn't seen them yet, and just when they get close enough to hear, the old poodle says:

"Where's that damn monkey? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another leopard!"

Moral of this story .

Age and treachery will always overcome youth and skill!

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Thursday, August 11, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

You will understand then why I don't like the crowd. It frightens me. I am always looking for the individual within it, the glance, someone with whom one exchanges a little of one's soul.

I like people for their weaknesses and their faults. I get on well with ordinary people. We talk. We start with the weather and little by little we get to the important things. When I photograph them it is not as though I am examining them with a magnifying glass, like a cold and scientific observer. It's brotherly. And it's better, isn't it, to shed some light on those people who are never in the limelight?

You've got to struggle against the pollution of intelligence in order to become an animal with very sharp instincts--a sort of intuitive medium--so that the photographer becomes a magical act and slowly more suggestive images begin to appear behind the visible image, for which the photographer cannot be responsible.

Brassi, French-Hungarian Photographer
BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

It doesn't matter where I look there's always something going on. All I need to do is wait, and look for long enough until the curtain begins to go up. Each time the same pompous formula trots through my head. Paris is a theater where you buy your sea by wasting time. And I'm still waiting.

R. Doisneau, Parisian Photographer

Saturday, July 30, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

Duty

Last night I rented Winter Light, the third of a Bergman Trilogy on God, Religion, Faith and the lack thereof within ourselves.

It's only 80 minutes and describes a disillusioned parson who has lost belief but who goes on preaching even after a failure in counseling that leads to the death of one of his parishioners. His lover also remains on duty even though he (the Parson) has told her to get lost.

Apart from the content of Bergman's early films which never leave me unfulfilled, the photography itself compels me always to re-watch each movie with a remote in my hand so that I can stop the action and look at what becomes an amazing still photograph.

mek

Monday, July 25, 2005

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com

July 25, 2005

Neo-Crom?

Today’s Financial Times has a piece describing the Neo-Croms of England.
Neo-Cromwellians, that is. Who are they? Well, the reader might as well ask who are we?

Approve of the ban on smoking in restaurants? You’re a neo-Crom. How about pregnant women who drink a glass of wine or smoke a cigarette with their meals? Approve? No? You’ve only proven you are a Puritan.

Today’s AOL informed me that New Jersey wants to make it a violation to smoke while driving. This after the state has banned smoking from restaurants, offices, and stores. So if someone—dare I say, “if a girl or a guy?” wants to get into his car and have a smoke by himself, after holding out all day, he is liable for a violation. April Fool? No, I checked, today is July 25th 2005.

If I want to get into a SUV there is a whole segment of the population that thinks I should be castigated and taxed double. If I allow my children to watch TV the Puritans know that I am abusing my children. Should I fail to pack and strap my child into a child cage when I get into my SUV I am liable for a moving violation. No matter, that I bought the gas-guzzler itself just to protect my little darling from the rest of you maniacal drivers.

When I play my CD’s loudly in my car while I drive past your house I am breaking the law —and now on some beaches in New York, I must use earphones or turn the radio off. What about my personal freedom?

I saw my neighbor grilling frankfurters and feeding them to his family last Saturday. Very bad for the children and think of all the gain that is wasted fattening up the cattle prior to their slaughter. Oh, and let’s talk about the inhumane and unsanitary conditions in the abattoir. We need regulation. You should stop eating beef.

When I take my family on a holiday in the forests I am accused of eco-vandalism, and there are many of us who wish to make most of the national parks of limits—or to ration use, perhaps allowing only PhD’s into the woods, and then only after they have proved themselves to be capable of cleaning their campsites and leaving them in better condition than they found them—as any cub-scout would have done fifty years ago. As far as allowing the uneducated into the parks—well, what’s Six Flags for anyway?

And the low prices on JetBlue and similar airlines? More unnecessary pollution. Raise the prices, protect the environment. The masses shouldn’t travel anyway. Let them save their money for their own health care.

We need tighter regulation on advertising directed at children—enough of that candy stuff, I say. And I would appreciate it too, if my granddaughter would stop asking me for those toys she sees on the television that I have asked my daughter-in-law to toss out.

I am amazed that there are governmental restrictions that make doctors fear giving sufficient pain medications—and most doctors fear to protest at the risk of their license to practice


Now, speaking of drugs, dare I point out how much the unsuccessful War on Drugs is costing us? Imagine if the mega-billions spent on that war was directed in other directions and if marijuana and cocaine were as legal as alcohol and tobacco.

On, the other hand, perhaps alcohol and tobacco are next on the New-Crom’s list. Why not?

The Neo-Croms resent our easy pleasures.

mek