Monday, May 30, 2011

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com
The Dunning–Kruger effect:
 
is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to appreciate their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others"
 
("Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge") Charles Darwin
 
Stronghart's  corollary to the Dunning-Kruger effect: -- the effect works for each of us both ways.
 
 
 

Saturday, May 28, 2011

BusterStronghart@Gmail.com


Rain yesterday just as I was about to go into the pool. Today, the Weatherman, (not Bob Dylan, the one on TV) threatens more occasional thunderstorms, so I am going down soon. I’ve been trying to get more exercise and the pool is one place where I am getting it.

On a scale of 1 (very little) to 10 (unbearable) I’ve had a slight hip pain (1 or 2, may even ½) for a month or so. Therefore,  I went to the hip doctor in Ft. Lauderdale, who  is the so-called “best of the best*” where I paid $250 for a consultation. (No Medicare) .   As you know, I’ve always maintained that no layperson can judge a doctor (or a car mechanic,  for that matter) but this doctor seemed to be great.  Tall, lanky, about 55, well spoken, very interested, humorous, and reminded me of a kind version of Marty Heilbraun, the best diagnostician I ever knew, who disappeared from his practice in Great Neck at the outset of third party medicine. Marty, a caustic humorist, whose examinations were without end, and included fingernails and very deep discussions of the patient’s personal life,  just closed his doors without notice… Maybe his wife murdered him on the grounds of excessive causticness or crustiness.  

I spent years wondering about the disposition of  his notes on my personal life. I was sure that no one else could have had such an “interesting” personal life which only shows how naïve I was at forty. Now we know that everyone was having those lives. {Randleman often said that he didn’t regret a moment or a single woman.}

The papers say that Arnold Schwarzenegger has regrets but I doubt it. Ditto for Clinton, and the rest of mankind. (Gender-ized word intentional, but now that I think of it,  women are probably included in the non-regretful.)

Anyway Dr William (“call me Will”) XX, chatted with Maria about her knees and about tennis, which he gave up because of his knees! However, one of his workers ( a pathfinder, whose mission it is to lead patients around the office, an endless labyrinth, has double knee replacements, and runs tennis programs where Maria plays. They knew each other. 

Digital X-rays were taken of my hips (I asked about the difference between hip and pelvis, and he showed me on the pics).  One of the best things about this doctor (“call me Will”) was that he studied the pics carefully, for what seemed like a very long time, and then, turning to Maria, pronounced my bones “excellent.” I felt proud and elated, and thankful that Maria was there to hear how wonderful my bones were.

He asked me to get up on a table across the room. I had to rise from the chair in which I had been sitting for about 15 or 20 minutes. Although I didn’t feel pain at the time, “Will” noticed a slight limp that disappeared as I took my fifth or six step.  Once he remarked about it, I became aware of it. And, in fact, now I feel or notice the very slight “lurch,”+ whenever I get up out of a chair.  

Once up on the table, he moved my legs into various, almost yoga-like positions, none of which elicited pain. But then he told me that he was going to “challenge”+ my hip, and he did cause some pain on the 2-3 level.  Neither “Will” nor I were concerned about the pain.

Again, “Will” turned to Maria and remarked about the marvelous strength in my legs and the musculature of my calf and thigh. I glowed in pride and immediately knew that no other doctor could serve.

“Will” (I was, and am, very uncomfortable about calling him by his first name) thought that no further tests were called for at this time, and only if the pain persists or increases might some tests be indicated. He named several tests that could be done,  MRI for instance, that only Maria knew about (you know, of course, that she’s another doctor).

I should continue to walk the beach, he wasn’t concerned about the angle of the sand at its verge. I could do anything, but should not indulge in painful activities. (From that advice you can tell that he didn’t get to know me as well as Heibraun. -- No one has to tell me to avoid pain or unnecessary exertion.) 

No source for the pain was identified positively. So, no hip replacement for me, but an interesting morning at the Docs.  If only they were all like this.

*”Best of the Best” means crème d’ la crème.

+ like “challenge,” “lurch” is an orthopedic term, of which you may not be familiar